Sheinbaum strikes deal with Trump to pause Mexico tariffs

Mexico agrees to deploy more National Guard troops at the border as Sheinbaum secures a one-month delay on tariffs from Donald Trump.

President of Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo speaks during the daily morning briefing at the National Palace on February 3, 2025, in Mexico City, Mexico. Photo by Aurora Martinez Corona/Getty Images

By Clarisa Sendy and Alana Salsabila

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced on Monday morning that she had successfully negotiated a deal with former U.S. President Donald Trump to pause steep tariffs on Mexican goods for one month. The agreement, reached after a phone call between the two leaders, averted a trade war that could have severely impacted Mexico’s economy.

Gerardo Fernández Noroña, president of the Mexican Senate and a member of Sheinbaum’s governing party, said he was not surprised by the outcome. “It was a great negotiation,” he said in a phone interview. “It seemed, in general, that there was no room for understanding, but she handled it very well.”

The deal postpones Trump’s planned 25 percent tariffs on Mexican imports until at least early March. In exchange, Mexico agreed to deploy 10,000 additional National Guard troops to its northern border to help curb drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl.

Mexico’s strategy to de-escalate tensions

For Sheinbaum, the agreement marks a major diplomatic win, demonstrating her ability to handle high-stakes negotiations with Mexico’s most important trade partner. As she took office in June, her administration had already begun preparing for Trump’s possible return to the White House.

Since his victory in November, Sheinbaum has remained composed, despite his repeated threats of mass deportations and economic penalties. The day after the U.S. elections, she reassured the public that her government would “establish communication and good relations” with Trump’s administration.

Her approach mirrors that of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who managed to build a cooperative relationship with Trump despite facing similar tariff threats. However, while López Obrador occasionally used confrontational rhetoric toward the U.S., Sheinbaum has maintained a more measured, diplomatic stance.

“She has her own sensibility and her own form,” Fernández Noroña noted, emphasizing Sheinbaum’s ability to navigate complex negotiations.

Economic stakes in the U.S.-Mexico relationship

Mexico has become the United States’ largest trading partner, surpassing China in recent years. It is also the top destination for U.S. food and agricultural exports, with trade in those sectors exceeding $29 billion annually.

Given these economic ties, a full-blown trade war between the two nations would have had severe consequences for both sides. Mexico’s strategy in negotiations with Trump involved highlighting its role in controlling northward migration and assisting U.S. security efforts.

Political analyst Carlos Bravo Regidor expressed surprise at how little Mexico had to concede to avoid the tariffs. “I didn’t expect it to be so easy or so cheap for Mexico,” he said.

Security measures and border control

As part of the agreement, Mexico committed to strengthening border security by increasing the presence of National Guard troops. While deploying security forces at the border is not a new strategy for Mexico, the promise to add 10,000 more troops demonstrates Sheinbaum’s willingness to address U.S. concerns over drug trafficking.

Members of the Mexican National Guard secure a drainage tunnel along the U.S.-Mexico border in Juarez, Chihuahua state, Mexico, on February 4, 2025. Photo by David Peinado/Bloomberg

In a notable addition to the agreement, the U.S. government also pledged to work with Mexico to curb the flow of illegal firearms into the country—a longstanding demand from Mexican officials. While details on this commitment remain unclear, Sheinbaum hailed it as an important step toward greater cooperation on security issues.

The Sheinbaum-Trump phone call

Sheinbaum’s phone call with Trump lasted approximately 30 minutes and was described as “very respectful.” Trump later referred to the conversation as “very friendly,” in stark contrast to his more critical remarks about Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose country is also facing new tariff threats.

Following the call, Sheinbaum emphasized the importance of mutual respect in U.S.-Mexico relations. “There is a relationship of respect and of equals, which is what is important,” she said.

For weeks, Sheinbaum and her administration remained tight-lipped about their response to Trump’s tariff threat. Initially, she had planned to unveil a “Plan B” strategy on Monday to counteract the economic damage if the tariffs were implemented. However, before making any announcements, she first sought to engage directly with Trump to de-escalate tensions.

Mexico’s diplomatic balancing act

Viridiana Ríos, a political analyst based in Mexico, believes Sheinbaum’s strategy revolved around presenting Trump with information that allowed him to claim a political victory. By demonstrating that Mexico had already reduced northward migration and taken action against drug trafficking, Sheinbaum provided Trump with an opportunity to frame the agreement as a success to his supporters.

“Mexican officials effectively showed the U.S. that they had strengthened border security,” Ríos said. “Trump was then able to declare that he had made progress on border control.”

However, she warned that Mexico must take a long-term approach to protecting its economic interests. She stressed the importance of diversifying trade partnerships and strengthening regional alliances to reduce Mexico’s reliance on the U.S. economy.

“The United States is no longer the reliable trading partner it once was,” Ríos said. “His threats will only continue, and my fear is there might be a moment where we don’t find a way to satisfy him.”

A fragile truce?

While Sheinbaum’s negotiation successfully delayed the tariffs, the long-term stability of U.S.-Mexico trade relations remains uncertain. Trump’s aggressive trade policies and unpredictable approach to diplomacy mean that future conflicts could arise at any moment.

For now, Sheinbaum has demonstrated her ability to navigate a major diplomatic challenge, securing both economic relief for Mexico and a show of cooperation with the U.S. Whether this temporary truce will hold beyond March remains to be seen.

As Mexico continues to strengthen its position as a global trade powerhouse, Sheinbaum’s leadership will be tested further in the months ahead. Her ability to maintain stability while managing complex relations with the U.S. will shape the future of Mexico’s economic and political landscape.