Trump postpones Canada and Mexico tariffs but keeps pressure high

U.S. demands tougher border enforcement as Donald Trump claims victory in negotiations.

Containers are transported by rail in North Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, on February 3, 2025. Photo by Artur Widak/Nur/Getty Images

By Nada Fadiyah and Clarisa Sendy

President Trump has long used tariffs as a negotiating tool, threatening economic consequences for nations that do not comply with his demands. However, what those demands specifically entail has often remained unclear, allowing him to declare victory at his discretion.

In his latest move, Trump postponed tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days, suggesting that both countries had made concessions in response to U.S. concerns over border security and drug trafficking. While he cited Canada’s appointment of a “fentanyl czar” and Mexico’s pledge to deploy 10,000 National Guard members to the border, the actual impact of these measures remains uncertain.

The uncertainty behind Trump's tariff threats

Trump’s approach to trade and border security has been defined by unpredictability. When asked if Canada could offer anything to avoid tariffs, Trump responded, “I don’t know.” He went on to say, “We have big deficits with Canada like we do with all countries. I’d like to see Canada become our 51st state.”

Despite the uncertainty surrounding his demands, Trump has presented the delayed tariffs as a diplomatic win, claiming both Canada and Mexico have taken actions to satisfy U.S. concerns.

However, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pushed back, noting that the measures Trump highlighted were already part of Canada’s $1.3 billion border security plan. In a social media post, Trudeau reiterated that Canada had been implementing additional technology and personnel at the border long before the tariff threats emerged.

Similarly, Mexico had already increased its border enforcement efforts before Trump’s latest round of pressure. President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration had stepped up anti-drug operations, including major fentanyl seizures and the dismantling of clandestine labs. As a result, illegal border crossings into the U.S. had already dropped, and U.S. drug-related fatalities had declined last year after years of surging overdose rates.

A strategy of ambiguity and political maneuvering

Trump’s vague demands appear to be a deliberate strategy, keeping negotiations fluid while maintaining the leverage of potential tariffs. By keeping his expectations unclear, he can determine when to claim success.

“He thrives in chaos, he thrives in uncertainty,” said John Feeley, former U.S. ambassador to Panama and deputy chief of mission in Mexico. “He doesn’t need to have a metric. You’re making a mistake if you think he’s sitting there with a spreadsheet. He’s not. He’s sitting there looking at headlines.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted on Monday that Trump had been “astoundingly clear” about his reasoning for the tariffs.

“The illegal surge of deadly drugs and human beings that we have seen trafficked over the southern border and northern border,” Leavitt said. “The president is making it very clear to both Canada and Mexico that the United States is no longer going to be a dumping ground for illegal deadly drugs and illegal human beings.”

Canada and Mexico’s responses to U.S. pressure

Despite Trump’s claims of securing new commitments, Canadian and Mexican officials argue that they have been actively addressing border security concerns for years.

Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly has made multiple visits to Washington since Trump’s election, advocating for Canada’s existing border security measures. She recently met with Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, to present a detailed report on Canada’s enforcement efforts.

Homan acknowledged Canada’s improvements but maintained that Trump “does not feel like they’ve done enough, and that’ll be his call.” Trump reportedly continued to hold the threat of tariffs over Canada until the last moment.

Mexico’s pledge to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops at the border could support Trump’s broader push to restrict migration. However, Mexico had already ramped up enforcement roughly a year ago under pressure from the Biden administration.

Illegal crossings into the U.S. had already fallen significantly before Trump’s latest tariff threats, and Mexico had previously agreed to border enforcement measures without the threat of economic penalties. According to Leavitt, the latest troop deployment will be permanent.

Tariffs as a tool of global pressure

Since taking office, Trump has shown a willingness to use economic pressure on foreign governments. He recently threatened tariffs on Colombia over its refusal to accept deportation flights from the U.S., a move that quickly led to Colombia reversing its stance.

Andrew Selee, president of the Migration Policy Institute, noted that the lack of clear benchmarks from Trump keeps Canada and Mexico guessing while giving Trump the ability to claim success whenever politically convenient.

“It’s still unclear what Mexico and Canada need to do to avoid U.S. tariffs,” Selee said. “But in the meantime, both Trump and Sheinbaum are likely to benefit politically from their negotiations.”

Trump can present the National Guard deployment as proof that he is enforcing tough border policies, while Sheinbaum can showcase her administration’s ability to stand up to the U.S. president.

What’s next for U.S.-Canada-Mexico relations?

As the 30-day tariff delay plays out, Canada and Mexico will likely continue emphasizing their existing border security efforts to prevent further economic pressure from Washington.

However, Trump’s track record suggests that he may continue to use tariffs as a tool to extract further concessions. With his approach rooted in ambiguity and brinkmanship, businesses and governments on both sides of the border remain uncertain about what comes next.

For now, the postponed tariffs provide temporary relief, but the threat of economic disruption looms as long as Trump keeps his trade tactics in play.