Boeing caught in U.S.-China trade war as aircraft orders stall

Boeing’s deliveries to China hit by new tariffs and retaliatory measures amid deepening U.S.-China tensions.

Signage is seen on the Boeing Co. manufacturing facility in Renton, Washington, on April 15, 2025. Photo by David Ryder/Bloomberg

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

U.S. aviation giant Boeing is once again under pressure, this time not from internal crises, but from escalating geopolitical tensions. Boeing caught in U.S.-China trade war headlines the latest chapter in the company’s turbulent period, as the world’s largest aerospace exporter becomes entangled in a spiraling tariff conflict between Washington and Beijing.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump accused China of walking back on what he described as a "big Boeing deal," citing a Bloomberg report indicating that Chinese authorities had instructed domestic airlines to pause aircraft deliveries and halt the purchase of U.S.-made aviation equipment. The move comes in direct response to the White House’s announcement of new tariffs of up to 145 percent on a wide range of Chinese imports, prompting retaliatory levies of 125 percent from Beijing on several American goods, including commercial aircraft and parts.

This tariff battle has instantly altered the financial landscape for Boeing. The new duties effectively double the cost of U.S.-manufactured aircraft for Chinese buyers. While the company has not officially commented on the situation, analysts and insiders fear the long-term consequences could be severe.

Tariffs threaten a fragile recovery

The Boeing caught in U.S.-China trade war narrative unfolds at a particularly vulnerable time for the company. Still reeling from a quality control crisis and a paralyzing labor strike in late 2024, Boeing had only just begun ramping up production and resuming deliveries.

Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce shows that commercial aircraft exports fell drastically in the second half of 2024. From a high of $4.2 billion in August, the figure dropped to $2.6 billion in September, followed by further slumps in October and November. Although December saw a modest recovery with $3.1 billion in exports, that momentum is now at risk of reversal due to the trade war.

With China being a key market—accounting for roughly 20 percent of global demand for large civil jets over the next two decades—Boeing's exposure is substantial. According to Bank of America Securities, 29 aircraft are scheduled for delivery this year to Chinese customers explicitly listed in Boeing’s order book. However, the true number could be significantly higher, as many customers prefer anonymity.

A costly blockade

If Beijing’s reported order freeze extends throughout 2025, Boeing could face billions in lost revenue. The company typically collects 60 percent of an aircraft’s price upon delivery—a financial model that makes it heavily reliant on a consistent shipping pipeline.

Boeing’s CEO Kelly Ortberg has often emphasized that the manufacturer supports 1.8 million U.S. jobs, making any blow to its order stream a national economic concern. The company has been dipping deeply into its already depleted cash reserves following the pandemic and recent production halts.

Meanwhile, the financial fallout could extend beyond Boeing. U.S. trade balances may worsen, especially if China opts to shift large-scale orders to Airbus. Yet, as BofA analysts point out, Airbus cannot absorb all of China’s aviation needs due to capacity constraints. The only other alternative, China’s state-owned COMAC, remains heavily dependent on U.S. suppliers—particularly for its C919 program, a would-be rival to Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’s A320.

Thus, if China were to entirely block U.S. aviation components, it would risk grounding its own indigenous aircraft ambitions, creating a paradox that makes the current freeze seem unsustainable in the long run.

Global consequences and rising costs

For global carriers, Boeing’s predicament is more than just a supply chain issue—it’s a looming financial dilemma. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has already hinted at delaying the delivery of 25 Boeing jets scheduled for August if tariffs significantly inflate costs. Ryanair had made a high-profile order in May 2023 for 300 737 MAX 10 aircraft, including 150 firm orders worth over $40 billion at list prices. Additional customs duties could jeopardize not only that deal but also future commitments.

In the U.S., Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian has indicated his unwillingness to pay customs on Airbus jets expected this year, adding further complexity to the international aircraft procurement process.

As the Boeing caught in U.S.-China trade war saga deepens, other airlines may follow Ryanair and Delta in reevaluating orders, delivery schedules, and sourcing strategies. The growing uncertainty may force global carriers to hedge their bets, diversify suppliers, or delay fleet expansions.

Boeing remains a geopolitical pawn

The strategic importance of Boeing extends far beyond aviation. As America’s largest exporter, it occupies a unique position in U.S. trade policy. According to BofA Securities, the U.S. government cannot ignore Boeing’s role when assessing trade balances or negotiating new tariffs. The current situation underscores how corporate entities, even those as massive as Boeing, are not immune to political gamesmanship.

China’s decision to reportedly block new Boeing deliveries may be intended to apply pressure on Washington. But it also reflects the limits of globalization in a climate where national interests increasingly supersede market logic.

Boeing’s current vulnerability makes it an easy target. The company has barely recovered from multiple crises, and its financial flexibility is restricted. Delivery delays, rising costs, and potential cancellations may result in a multi-billion-dollar shortfall if the standoff persists.

No quick resolution in sight

There’s little indication that the U.S.-China trade war will de-escalate anytime soon. With elections on the horizon and nationalist sentiment running high in both countries, leaders are doubling down on protectionist rhetoric. For Boeing, that means preparing for an extended period of volatility.

Some industry watchers believe behind-the-scenes diplomacy could soften Beijing’s stance, especially given COMAC’s reliance on U.S. technology. However, that outcome is far from guaranteed.

In the meantime, the Boeing caught in U.S.-China trade war story will continue to unfold, potentially reshaping the global aircraft market for years to come. As the standoff intensifies, the company must navigate not only market forces but also political currents far beyond its control.

The path forward for Boeing is uncertain. But what’s clear is that its future now hinges as much on diplomacy as it does on design, engineering, or manufacturing efficiency. For an industry built on the dream of global connectivity, it’s a bitter irony that political borders once again define the limits of flight.