Cartel violence cripples Ecuador’s economy and threatens Guayaquil’s future

Tourism vanishes and crime surges as cartel violence grips Ecuador’s largest city, leaving its economy in ruins.

An army troop carrier truck drives near the site where the bodies of three dismembered men were discovered in sacks in Guayaquil, Ecuador, on March 18, 2025. Photo by Marcos Pin/AFP

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

Once the vibrant heart of Ecuador's economy, Guayaquil is now a city gripped by fear and economic collapse. Cartel violence in Ecuador, driven by escalating drug wars and gang rivalries, has turned this coastal metropolis into a battleground. Tourism has dried up, businesses are closing, and even the city's parks feel abandoned. With the country preparing for Sunday’s presidential election, whoever emerges victorious will inherit a nation buckling under a crisis that shows no sign of easing.

Guayaquil’s public spaces turn ghostly as fear takes over

In the city’s iconic Seminary Park, once a magnet for tourists drawn by its colonial charm and sunbathing iguanas, the atmosphere is hauntingly quiet. Street vendor Juan Carlos Pesantes, who has sold snacks and drinks near the park for over 16 years, watches as the city he once knew changes before his eyes.

“In the afternoon it feels like a cemetery,” Pesantes said. “There are no tourists left.”

In recent years, Guayaquil has seen an exodus of both tourists and local patrons as insecurity continues to surge. The park now closes at 6:00 p.m., four hours earlier than before, reflecting the growing unease after dark.

Ecuador’s murder rate soars as economy declines

Once a bustling business center, Guayaquil now ranks among Latin America’s most violent cities. Fueled by the boom in Colombian cocaine production and Ecuador’s strategic coastal ports, international cartels and local gangs are waging brutal turf wars. According to government figures, some months now see over 700 murders—an average of more than one every hour across the country.

The violence has deeply affected everyday life. Economic activity has slowed significantly. People are afraid to leave their homes. Restaurants, shops, and entertainment venues are struggling to survive.

“Violence is affecting consumption. The population has fewer possibilities to go out on the street, to a restaurant, to make a purchase—it’s risky,” said Alberto Acosta Burneo, an economic analyst at the Spurrier Group.

Locals face fear and financial hardship

Residents across Guayaquil speak of the daily fear that has become a new normal. In a working-class neighborhood, Paola Valdivieso, a 54-year-old salon worker, describes the dread she feels walking to work.

“You walk looking in all directions,” she said. “You never know what might happen.”

Even Ecuador’s key export sectors are under threat. Richard Salazar, director of a banana growers’ association, said drug traffickers are using banana shipments to move cocaine. “We are victims of drug trafficking. We are victims of crime and organized crime with extortions,” Salazar said. Ecuador’s banana industry, along with oil, cocoa, shrimp, and flowers, forms a major part of the national economy—but organized crime is exploiting these supply chains, adding insecurity to economic uncertainty.

Unemployment and poverty deepen the crisis

As cartel violence in Ecuador intensifies, the economic toll deepens. Unemployment and underemployment now affect nearly one in four Ecuadorians. One in three people live in poverty, with limited access to secure, well-paid jobs.

“There’s a lot of informality,” Acosta Burneo explained, referring to the widespread reliance on unstable or temporary work.

For retirees like Gerardo Ortiz, life has become a daily struggle. Living off a monthly pension of just $280, he gestures to his only means of transport—an old bicycle resting against a tree—and jokes that it’s his “car.”

With such financial constraints, consumer spending is shrinking and confidence in the economy is evaporating. Foreign investors, once attracted by Ecuador’s dollarized economy, are now keeping their distance. “The lack of investment is reflected in an economy that does not grow as it should,” Acosta Burneo said.

Energy crisis and infrastructure failures worsen the outlook

Guayaquil’s economic woes are compounded by energy shortages. In both 2023 and 2024, power outages—sometimes lasting up to 14 hours—crippled daily life. These blackouts were caused by both drought and a lack of investment in the energy sector, further eroding confidence in the government’s ability to manage infrastructure.

Now, as Ecuador prepares to choose between two presidential candidates with very different visions, the scale of the crisis is evident to all.

Election looms amid economic collapse and political uncertainty

Sunday’s election pits incumbent Daniel Noboa against leftist challenger Luisa Gonzalez. Both candidates have promised bold action, but their strategies differ significantly.

Gonzalez proposes a return to state-driven development. Her plan includes investing in infrastructure and public services, restructuring the tax system to place more burden on private companies, and reversing Noboa’s recent hike in value-added tax.

Noboa, meanwhile, emphasizes a tough-on-crime approach and leans toward neoliberal economics. His strategy includes negotiating trade agreements—such as one with Canada to boost mining and oil exports—while maintaining security-focused policies to crack down on gangs and cartels.

Neither candidate has presented a fully convincing solution for how to combat the entrenched power of cartels or reverse the economic downturn. Many voters remain skeptical. “There is no confidence,” Pesantes said of the two candidates. “I’m undecided.”

A hollowed-out city with uncertain prospects

Guayaquil today stands as a stark example of how cartel violence in Ecuador is dismantling not only public security but also the very economic foundations of the country. With no easy solution in sight, residents are left to navigate a daily reality shaped by fear, hardship, and uncertainty.

As the country votes this weekend, the outcome may change its leadership—but the path to restoring peace and rebuilding Guayaquil’s economy will be long and fraught with challenges.

Whoever takes office will face the formidable task of reclaiming the city from violence, re-energizing its economy, and restoring hope to a population desperate for safety and stability. The stakes could not be higher.