Ecuador's presidential election too close to call as Noboa faces off against Gonzalez

Ecuador's presidential election hinges on security policies and economic concerns as incumbent Noboa battles leftist challenger Gonzalez.

A woman casts her vote in the second round of Ecuador's General Elections 2025 at IFEMA Madrid on April 13, 2025, in Madrid, Spain. Photo by Matias Chiofalo/Europa Press

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

Quito, Ecuador — Ecuador's 2025 presidential election has become one of the closest and most heated in recent history. As voting day approaches this Sunday, the race between the incumbent, security-focused Daniel Noboa, and his left-wing challenger, Luisa Gonzalez, remains highly uncertain. With the nation grappling with rising violence and deepening economic concerns, this election is shaping up to determine not only the future of Ecuador's security policies but also its relationship with the rest of the world.

In February’s first round of voting, Noboa, who won narrowly, did not secure the decisive victory that many expected. His victory margin was razor-thin—less than a percentage point, or roughly 17,000 votes—setting the stage for a dramatic final showdown with Gonzalez, a charismatic former legislator backed by the left-wing establishment.

The focus of this election has largely been on the pressing issue of Ecuador's rampant cartel violence. Once considered one of the safest countries in Latin America, Ecuador has now become one of the deadliest as drug cartels fight for control over the nation's critical cocaine trade routes.

As Noboa fights for re-election, he has doubled down on his "iron fist" approach to security, focusing on the military's role in combating the cartels. He has vowed to continue this strategy with a promise of expanding the military presence in cities across the country.

In contrast, Gonzalez, who has positioned herself as the champion of the poor and marginalized, calls for a more balanced approach. Her campaign highlights the need for social reforms alongside security improvements. Gonzalez’s approach focuses on tackling the root causes of crime, including poverty, unemployment, and lack of opportunity for the country’s youth.

Economic anxiety and a shifting electorate

The key issue for many Ecuadorans is the growing economic malaise caused by the violence and political instability. As criminal organizations increasingly dominate Ecuador’s cities, many sectors of the economy have suffered. Inflation is on the rise, and poverty rates are alarmingly high. Gonzalez’s economic policies focus on redistributing wealth and providing more direct financial support to families, including offering loans and subsidies to low-income households.

Ecuador's poverty rate has now reached 28%, leaving many voters desperate for change. Local business owner Marcelo Salgado, who operates a small cafeteria in Quito, expressed his hope that the election would bring an end to the violence and allow his business to thrive. “We hope that this Sunday, at last, things will get better,” Salgado told reporters. “That they leave us to work in peace and that calm returns.”

Polls indicate that the election is far from settled. With so many voters still uncertain, the eventual victor will need to secure the backing of the country’s fractured electorate. While Gonzalez has attracted support from powerful indigenous groups, including Leonidas Iza, a well-known activist and leader, it remains unclear whether his supporters will remain loyal to her campaign.

Noboa’s hardline security stance vs. Gonzalez’s social reforms

Noboa, who is the son of a billionaire banana magnate, has campaigned heavily on his security credentials. He has repeatedly stated that Ecuador's future hinges on cracking down on the cartels with harsh, no-nonsense policies. His approach has been heavily influenced by the US, and he has welcomed support from the American government in the form of military assistance and intelligence sharing. Noboa's image as a strongman leader has resonated with voters who are fed up with the escalating violence.

However, Gonzalez has positioned herself as an advocate for Ecuador’s working-class citizens. She has vowed to tackle the structural issues that drive violence, such as poverty and inequality, and promised to improve the living conditions of Ecuadorans through targeted investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure. Her message of hope and social justice has struck a chord with many of the nation’s poorer citizens.

Despite this, Gonzalez’s links to former president Rafael Correa remain controversial. Correa, who served from 2007 to 2017, is still an influential figure in Ecuador's politics, despite his exile and conviction for corruption. Many voters, especially those supporting Noboa, see Correa’s return as a threat to Ecuador's democratic progress.

The potential implications for Ecuador's foreign relations

A Noboa victory would likely result in continued close ties with the United States, with a focus on counter-narcotics cooperation and regional security initiatives. This would also mark a further consolidation of Ecuador’s right-wing political alignment, particularly as President Trump’s influence continues to loom large in global geopolitics.

If Gonzalez were to win, it would signal a shift to the left, with potential ramifications for Ecuador's foreign relations. Her close ties to Correa and the left-wing populist movement could result in a cooling of relations with the US, especially given the country’s growing alignment with regional leaders like Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. Gonzalez’s policies could result in a re-evaluation of Ecuador's role in Latin America and a possible shift towards stronger ties with countries that have taken a more anti-American stance.

A divided country with an uncertain future

The final round of voting, scheduled for this Sunday, will be a critical moment in the nation’s history. With the country still deeply divided over security policies and economic reforms, the outcome will likely determine the direction of Ecuador for years to come.

If the results are as tight as expected, it could lead to instability and potential claims of fraud, a scenario that would further erode confidence in the country’s political institutions. Some analysts have warned that a narrow victory for either candidate could leave the new government with a weak mandate, making it more difficult to navigate the challenges ahead.

As 13.7 million Ecuadorans prepare to cast their votes, the nation stands at a crossroads, where the future of its security, economy, and global alliances hang in the balance.