Ecuador’s runoff election too close to call as Noboa and Gonzalez face off

Noboa and Gonzalez end campaigns with focus on crime, jobs, and women’s issues ahead of Sunday’s pivotal vote.

Banners featuring Ecuador's President and presidential candidate Daniel Noboa (top) alongside leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez are seen on a street in Guayaquil, Ecuador, on April 11, 2025. Photo by Raul Arboleda/AFP

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

Ecuador’s runoff election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential and divisive political moments in the country’s recent history. On Sunday, nearly 14 million citizens will cast their votes in a tight contest between center-right candidate Daniel Noboa and leftist rival Luisa Gonzalez. With the presidency hanging in the balance, the runoff has brought Ecuador’s mounting challenges—soaring crime, economic stagnation, and deep political polarization—to the forefront.

The outcome of Ecuador’s runoff election is far from certain. Polls have consistently shown the race as a virtual dead heat, with less than a percentage point separating the two contenders. Both candidates wrapped up their campaigns on Thursday in Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city and a symbol of both economic opportunity and rampant violence, before entering a mandatory pre-election silence period on Friday.

A nation bracing for change—or continuity

Daniel Noboa, the 37-year-old heir to a banana empire and current interim president, is campaigning on promises of change and security. Despite being the son of one of Ecuador’s wealthiest families, he has branded himself as an outsider willing to take a hard line against organized crime. His proposals include inviting U.S. military forces to help tackle Ecuador’s drug-fueled violence, which has spiraled out of control in recent years.

“There is no work and insecurity is on the rise,” said Adela, a 29-year-old mother from Quito. “They always make promises, but when they are elected, they never fulfil them.”

Her words reflect the disillusionment many voters feel going into Ecuador’s runoff election—a sentiment both campaigns have tried to exploit in the final days.

Luisa Gonzalez, a 47-year-old lawyer and the candidate of the leftist Citizen Revolution Movement, is aiming to become Ecuador’s first woman president. Her candidacy has been bolstered by the endorsement of former president Rafael Correa, who governed the country from 2007 to 2017 and now lives in exile in Belgium following a corruption conviction he claims is politically motivated.

Gonzalez is banking on a return to social welfare policies and a shift away from market liberalism, arguing that Ecuador’s poor and working-class citizens have been left behind.

Women voters become key battleground

In the final hours of her campaign, Gonzalez made a direct appeal to women—especially single mothers. She pledged low-interest loans of up to $40,000 for women raising children on their own, citing her own experience as a single mother as a point of connection.

“During Noboa’s time in power, violence, poverty, and unemployment has hit us women hardest,” she told supporters in Guayaquil. Her message resonated with many Ecuadoran women, particularly those struggling under economic pressure.

Noboa, meanwhile, stuck to his message of shaking up the political establishment and curbing criminal violence. “The country does not deserve to be mistreated by the same old politicians,” he said, criticizing Gonzalez’s close ties to Correa and the leftist legacy many still associate with corruption and authoritarianism.

Violence and instability dominate the landscape

The dominant issue in Ecuador’s runoff election is undoubtedly the country’s alarming surge in crime. In the first two months of the year, Ecuador registered roughly one murder per hour—the bloodiest start to a year in its history. Much of the violence has been linked to drug cartels fighting for control of key smuggling routes that connect cocaine-producing nations like Colombia and Peru to Ecuador’s Pacific ports.

Noboa’s proposal to bring in U.S. military support has generated mixed reactions. While some see it as a bold move to restore order, others fear it could stoke nationalist backlash or infringe on Ecuador’s sovereignty. Gonzalez, by contrast, has called for strengthening Ecuador’s own security institutions and curbing external interference in domestic affairs.

Analysts worry that regardless of who wins, the incoming president will inherit a nation deeply fractured, overwhelmed by economic inequality and security threats.

An electorate divided, and a mandate at risk

The February first-round vote saw Gonzalez narrowly edge out Noboa by just over 17,000 votes—a margin that underscores how evenly split Ecuadorans are. With more than a dozen minor candidates eliminated from the second round, hundreds of thousands of undecided or swing voters now hold the balance of power.

Gonzalez has picked up a major endorsement from Leonidas Iza, the powerful indigenous leader who captured half a million votes in the first round. Yet, it remains unclear whether his supporters will follow his lead, given the historic divisions between indigenous activists and Correa-era politicians.

Polls in Ecuador have often proven unreliable, and the tightness of this year’s race has fueled concerns of potential unrest or accusations of fraud. According to Simon Pachano of FLASCO, an international social sciences think tank, a narrow win for either candidate could spark political instability.

“If the difference is very small, the government will be born with a problem,” Pachano said. “It has almost half the country against it, and that weighs heavily, making it more difficult to govern.”

Government enacts pre-election controls

In an effort to avoid disruptions, the Ecuadoran government enforced a nationwide prohibition on alcohol sales and restricted foreign arrivals in the final days before the vote. While officials say the measures are aimed at maintaining order, critics argue that the last-minute policies are excessive and may hint at deeper fears of post-election volatility.

Both Noboa and Gonzalez ended their campaigns by stressing unity and national recovery, yet neither has offered a clear blueprint for bridging Ecuador’s political divide. The winner of Ecuador’s runoff election will face immediate pressure to deliver on promises while managing expectations among skeptical voters.

A test of leadership—and legitimacy

Sunday’s election is more than a political contest; it is a referendum on the direction of Ecuador’s democracy. Noboa represents continuity with a promise of modernization and strong-arm policies against crime. Gonzalez embodies a leftist revival, backed by a political movement that sees itself as the defender of Ecuador’s poor.

Whichever path Ecuadorans choose, the nation will awaken Monday with a new president—one who must contend not only with crime and joblessness, but also with the legitimacy and unity needed to govern a fractured nation.

With high stakes, deep divisions, and no clear favorite, Ecuador’s runoff election will test the country’s resilience and shape its trajectory for years to come.