Pakistan warns India over Indus Waters Treaty as tensions escalate

Pakistan’s suspension of treaties and threats over water rights mark a new low in India-Pakistan relations following the Kashmir attack.

Activists from the Pakistan Markazi Muslim League burn the Indian national flag during an anti-India protest in Quetta, on April 24, 2025. Photo by Banaras Khan/AFP

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

Pakistan has issued a stark warning to India over the future of the Indus Waters Treaty, declaring that any Indian attempt to divert river flows would be viewed as an act of war. The threat comes amid surging hostilities following a deadly attack in Kashmir that left 26 Indian tourists dead and triggered widespread outrage.

The fallout has already seen a suspension of diplomatic engagement, military cooperation, and long-standing bilateral accords between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Most significantly, Pakistan's top security body, the National Security Committee, announced on Thursday that it would hold in abeyance the 1972 Simla Agreement and suspend the Indus Waters Treaty—both vital frameworks for maintaining stability in the subcontinent.

This escalation follows a series of steps taken by India, which blames Pakistan-based militants for the massacre in Pahalgam, a popular tourist spot in Jammu and Kashmir. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi responded with strong words and swift action, ordering a drawdown of diplomatic staff, the closure of the only border crossing with Pakistan, and the termination of water-sharing negotiations.

Kashmir killings reignite tensions

The crisis began when gunmen opened fire on Indian civilians in Pahalgam, reigniting the decades-long dispute over Kashmir. Indian authorities have since identified two of the three suspects as Pakistani nationals and linked them to Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT), a group India holds responsible for the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks. A police “Wanted” notice confirmed their affiliation with LeT, branding them as "terrorists operating under Pakistani command."

Speaking at a public rally in Bihar, Modi vowed to exact retribution. “India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers,” he declared. “The spirit of India will not be broken by acts of terror. Pahalgam will not go unpunished.”

Pakistan denies involvement, strikes back with threats

Pakistan, however, has denied any role in the attack. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told Dunya News that no evidence has been presented linking Islamabad to the Pahalgam massacre. “There will be a tit-for-tat reply, and not an iota less than what India does,” Dar warned.

The National Security Committee of Pakistan not only disputed India’s claims but also issued its own allegations. The committee accused India of carrying out transnational killings, referencing recent incidents involving the deaths of separatist Sikh activists abroad, allegedly orchestrated by Indian operatives.

The most alarming statement came regarding water security. “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty will be considered as an act of war,” read the committee’s official statement. It further declared that Pakistan would “respond with full force across the complete spectrum of national power.”

Strategic accords unravel

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, has long been hailed as a cornerstone of peaceful cooperation between India and Pakistan. It guarantees Pakistan access to the three western rivers of the Indus Basin—its lifeline for agriculture, drinking water, and electricity. For decades, the treaty survived wars and political upheaval, maintaining a buffer of stability even in turbulent times.

But now, with India announcing the suspension of its participation in the treaty, this critical framework is on the verge of collapse. Analysts fear that its termination could have catastrophic consequences for Pakistan’s agriculture, especially as sowing season begins and water levels are already low.

Farooq Tariq, a farmer and water rights activist from Punjab, warned that the consequences could be devastating. “Farmers in Sindh and Punjab are in grave danger of losing access to water. We’re already facing water scarcity. This could ruin entire harvests,” he said.

Simla Agreement frozen

Adding to the gravity of the situation is Pakistan’s decision to suspend the Simla Agreement. Signed in 1972 after the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, the accord outlines the peaceful resolution of disputes, especially in Kashmir. Its suspension indicates a breakdown in diplomatic communication channels and removes a vital mechanism for managing border tensions.

Michael Kugelman, a South Asia specialist at the Wilson Center in Washington, described both the Simla Agreement and the Indus Waters Treaty as “safety nets” during moments of peak tension. “Their unraveling signals that the relationship is entering dangerous, uncharted territory,” he said.

Regional and global repercussions

This diplomatic crisis comes at a perilous time for Pakistan, which is struggling with economic instability, high inflation, and energy shortages. Analysts warn that a deterioration in relations with India could further destabilize the country’s fragile economy, disrupt trade, and increase military expenditure.

India, too, faces regional backlash, with China expressing concern over rising hostilities. While global powers have largely urged restraint, none have yet offered to mediate between the two adversaries. With no clear off-ramp in sight, fears of further escalation remain high.

Markets have already reacted nervously to developments. The threat of water wars, coupled with mutual accusations of terrorism, has prompted investor concerns about regional instability in South Asia. Diplomatic experts say a breakdown in trust between India and Pakistan could have ripple effects on the broader Indo-Pacific region, drawing in external powers and complicating efforts to manage other regional conflicts.

Domestic pressures on both sides

The confrontation also plays into domestic politics. In India, Modi’s tough stance on terrorism continues to rally his base, especially ahead of key regional elections. His emphasis on national security has long been a winning strategy, and the Pahalgam attack provides a renewed justification for aggressive policy measures.

In Pakistan, the government is under pressure to respond forcefully, especially as nationalist sentiments surge. With widespread frustration over the economic downturn and rising living costs, officials in Islamabad are unlikely to soften their position.

Despite the heightened rhetoric, many observers still hope for a de-escalation. Some suggest that backchannel diplomacy may still be active, even if official lines of communication appear frozen.

Future uncertain

The situation remains fluid. With the Indus Waters Treaty in jeopardy and military tensions rising, the path ahead is uncertain. If both nations continue down the current trajectory, what began as a tragic massacre in Kashmir could evolve into one of the most dangerous confrontations in recent South Asian history.

For now, Pakistan’s message is clear: it will not tolerate any perceived aggression, especially when it comes to the vital issue of water security. And India, grappling with domestic outrage and global scrutiny, is showing no signs of backing down.

As both nations harden their positions, the risk of miscalculation grows. And with nuclear weapons in the background, the stakes could not be higher.