Singapore election tests Lawrence Wong’s leadership amid US tariffs threat

First national vote under Lawrence Wong comes as US trade war rattles Singapore’s export-reliant economy.

People walk along the boardwalk in front of commercial high-rise buildings at Marina Bay in Singapore, on September 26, 2024. Photo by Roslan Rahman/AFP

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

As Singaporeans prepare to head to the polls on May 3, the Singapore election tests Lawrence Wong’s leadership in what is expected to be one of the most pivotal votes in the nation’s modern political history. For the first time, the People's Action Party (PAP) enters a national election without a Lee family member at its helm—marking a generational shift in governance and a real test of Wong’s political mettle.

Wong, 52, took over from Lee Hsien Loong last year, ending decades of Lee family dominance that stretched back to the country's founding father, Lee Kuan Yew. This shift comes as Singapore, one of the most trade-dependent economies in the world, faces mounting global economic turbulence caused by US tariffs. The election is taking place just months after US President Donald Trump returned to the White House and reimposed sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries, igniting fears of a new global trade war.

For Wong, the election is a high-stakes referendum. It’s a chance to secure a strong mandate and prove that he can guide the island through a new era of economic and geopolitical instability.

A new era of uncertainty

Parliament was formally dissolved on Tuesday, clearing the path for the general election. The PAP, which has governed uninterrupted since 1959, remains the favorite to win. However, opposition parties and independent analysts suggest this could be its most closely watched contest yet.

Singapore’s economy—built on the back of global trade—is under serious threat. With Trump’s return and a renewed push for protectionist policies, the once-reliable international trading system is being upended. Singapore’s role as a global transhipment hub has made it particularly vulnerable to such shocks.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry downgraded its 2025 economic growth forecast on Monday, now expecting a modest 0 to 2.0 percent growth—down from earlier projections of 1.0 to 3.0 percent.

Wong has not shied away from addressing the challenges. In parliament last week, he offered a stark assessment of the situation: "The era of rules-based globalisation and free trade is over. We risk being squeezed out, marginalised, and left behind."

Opposition parties sense an opening

The opposition Workers' Party (WP) is hoping to capitalize on these anxieties. After gaining 10 out of 93 seats in the 2020 election, the WP is now positioning itself as a viable counterweight to the PAP’s dominance. One of its most prominent candidates, Harpreet Singh—a Harvard-trained senior counsel—has been vocal about the need for more political diversity.

"Singapore could be a much better and stronger country with a more balanced politics," Singh said in a recent interview. "We need a reset, where we treat our critics and people from outside the system with respect, not suspicion."

A total of 97 seats are up for grabs in this election, an increase from 2020 due to redistricting—changes which opposition parties have criticized as favoring the PAP. The majority of these seats will be contested through the Group Representation Constituency (GRC) system, a bloc voting method that critics argue benefits incumbents.

Still, analysts say a more fragmented opposition field could weaken gains. Multiple smaller parties competing in overlapping constituencies could split the anti-PAP vote.

The youth vote could be decisive

One of the wildcards in this election is the growing influence of millennial and Gen-Z voters. These demographics tend to be more receptive to alternative voices and more willing to question long-standing political assumptions.

Eugene Tan, an associate professor of law at Singapore Management University, noted that the political landscape is evolving. “Millennial and Gen-Z voters are much more receptive to a credible opposition in parliament,” he said. “The upcoming election may well be the toughest electoral battle for the ruling party.”

These voters are digital natives, deeply engaged in online discourse and politically aware of regional and global issues. As Singapore navigates the economic fallout from a new wave of US tariffs, younger voters may demand not just economic security, but also greater transparency and representation in policymaking.

Wong's leadership under pressure

The core question as Singapore votes is whether Prime Minister Lawrence Wong can convince voters that the challenges posed by US tariffs and the broader geopolitical climate require a steady hand—and that the PAP is still that hand.

Political analyst Mustafa Izzuddin believes that Wong needs a strong electoral performance to assert his leadership. “This election will strengthen his hand and that of his government in putting in place policies to protect the economy and negotiate with other countries,” Izzuddin said.

However, he also warns that sentiment on the ground is harder to read this time. "There is an unpredictability of ground sentiments and the emergence of a better quality opposition," he noted.

Wong’s challenge is twofold: to present himself as a capable steward of Singapore’s economic future, while also addressing growing calls for political reform. In that sense, the Singapore election tests Lawrence Wong’s leadership on both economic and democratic fronts.

A divided mandate or a renewed consensus?

Some observers believe the current economic climate might actually benefit the PAP, as uncertain times often lead voters to favor stability. Izzuddin calls this a potential “flight-to-safety” move.

But others recall the 2020 election, held during the pandemic, which saw the opposition make historic gains. If that momentum carries into 2025, it could result in a more balanced parliament—even if the PAP retains control.

Ultimately, the question is how much appetite Singaporeans have for a stronger opposition voice, and whether they believe more political competition will lead to better governance.

Singh, the WP’s rising star, puts it succinctly: "The best governments are not the ones that have dominant control and are not challenged. The best governments are the ones that are pushed to be better. That’s where Singapore needs to go."

What lies ahead

The outcome of this election will not just determine the composition of the next parliament—it will shape the tone of Singapore’s future. Will voters stick with the familiar, trusting the PAP and Wong to navigate economic turmoil? Or will they push for more diverse representation, even if that means shaking up decades of one-party dominance?

Whatever the result, one thing is clear: this is not just another election. The Singapore election tests Lawrence Wong’s leadership at a time when the stakes have rarely been higher—for the economy, for democracy, and for the identity of a nation built on the principles of resilience and adaptation.

As Singapore heads to the ballot box on May 3, the eyes of the region—and indeed, the world—will be watching.